Gold Enters Major Bull Market

[Abedo]

#6618

GREETINGS to our new website.
The FORUM began in the late 1990’s at origsix.com. Do to its age a modern website became necessary. Here it is; however all the transaction from origsix.com during the transition are not yet available on the site. Our original website will remain. Welcome and enjoy your journey with the oldest USA gold mining corporation. Participate using either or both sites.

[Dick Davis]

#6410

This price history may be of interest:

200 years of prices

[Stephen Wilson]

#6409

For the 20-year period, gold has returned more than 485 percent, beating Warren’s Berkshire Hathaway, which was up 426 percent. Not only that, but gold royalty and streaming company Franco-Nevada, has beaten Buffett too.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6395

I believe China has been buying silver for months. Silver is way undervalued.

[SCOOP]

#6394

Welcome back Bluejay. What do you foresee for silver? Every writer about precious metals makes a huge point that silver lags well behind gold. They write expecting a major increase in spot. The silver miners are having a hard time operating. Does supply and demand enter into spot pricing or is it about long/short positions, or other topics.

The expectations support that a dramatic move will occur. What people or institutions have major long or short positions?

Why would anyone think that a short silver position is smart?

[Stephen Wilson]

#6393

Gold pushing above $1370 is favorable for the metal and prepares it for its next major intermediate advance within its current bull market.

[SCOOP]

#6388

Pundits: love ‘em or leave ‘em or be entertained and educated. In a matter of days the gold market looks different from is narrow and predictable behavior. Some pundits write, “The gold market has totally changed.” Maybe but I am always aware of Lee Erdahl’s past director (check website for past directors history) sage advice. “When asked about the future spot price of gold, I advise you say that you know one fact for certain: it will go up and it will go down.”

Gold has its interventionists on both sides. It is an expensive playground and very serious. If I were a bear, I would not be piggy. If I were a bull, my horns would be digging in the ground, my eyes would be alert and I would buck any rider off my back..

[Michael Miller]

#6335

Numerous gold reports are coming my way for year 2019. One common remark is: market risk and economic growth to drive gold in 2019. Gold demand will benefit from the interplay of market risk and economic growth. Financial market instability, monetary policy with the US dollar and structural economic reforms are cited as a backdrop: “gold will become even more relevant due to its proven track record for delivering returns.” Perceptions about gold are always included in futuristic expectations.

“Gold will be supported by the development of the middle class in emerging markets for its role as an asset of last resort.” The ever-expanding use of gold in technological applications is also a point of interest. Central bank demand for gold in 2018 was the highest since 2015, as a wider set of countries added gold to their foreign reserves for diversification and safety (fiat currency risk). China and India remain pro gold.

Gold speculative positioning in future markets remains low by historical standards, hitting record lows in the closing months of 2018. What about those shorts? United States investment and non-investment men and women generally avoid gold. Yes avoid gold until the media and money talkers rant on about its importance (which it is); however the public moves into gold right at or very near the top. How sad and predictable! My industry, those of us that actually mine the stuff, are actually in small numbers compared to the gurus: more details upcoming. It’s good to be back on the FORUM.

[Michael Miller]

#6313

Argentina’s New Export Tax Could Hurt Yamana’s Cashflow

Less than two weeks ago, Argentina proposed a 12 percent tax on all exports out of the country as part of a plan to correct economic turmoil that has sent the peso to record lows. The tax will be capped at four peso for each US dollar of bullion and unrefined gold and at three peso for each dollar of unrefined metals.

“While the company’s favorable positioning relative to production and costs bodes well for the near and medium term, Argentina’s export tax has the potential to offset a portion of these benefits,” said Daniel Racine, president and CEO.
Racine notes that the company will work to seek a constructive resolution for both parties by determining if and how the tax will be applied. Unfortunately for Yamana, its share price was negatively affected by the September 3rd announcement and its stock lost approximately 17 percent of its value as result.

[Michael Miller]

#6296

Published 3rd May 2018 World Gold council

Gold demand of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment demand for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices.

Jewelry demand was steady at 487.7t, as growth in China and the US compensated for weaker Indian demand. Technology demand extended its recent upward trend. The total supply of gold increased by 3% to 1,063.5t, primarily due to a modest increase in producer hedging. Mine production was fractionally higher at 770t.

China, Germany and the US drove weakness in bar and coin investment. Global demand fell 15% to 254.9t as range-bound gold prices undermined investor interest.

ETFs saw a fifth consecutive quarter of inflows. Holdings grew 32.4t, due to growth in US-listed funds. Q1 investment was mixed, with rising interest rates on the one hand and a sharp spike in stock market volatility on the other.

Global jewelry demand was roughly flat at 487.7t. China was buoyed by holiday spending and the supportive economic backdrop improved US demand. By contrast, Indian consumers were discouraged by rising local gold prices.

Central banks added 116.5t to global official reserves in Q1. This was the highest Q1 total for four years and in line with long-term average quarterly purchases of 114.9t since Q1 2010.

Demand for gold in the technology sector continued to improve. The wireless sector was a key area of growth as facial recognition is increasingly deployed in smartphones, gaming consoles and security systems.

[Michael Miller]

#6293

Why I spend little time guessing, speculating, charting or recording data regarding the historical hydra of the gold spot price market. Some believe it to be an evil. Not I. Some believe it to be great value. Either way pundits or intelligent analysts are celebrating a positive first quarter while others are sending up a warning signal as they see significant risks to the downside because of rising real bond yields. Yawn.

In a report Tuesday, one wrote that the growing divergence between gold prices and rising real interest rates is becoming “increasingly precipitous.” Traditionally, higher real interest rates weigh on gold prices, increasing the precious metal’s opportunity costs as a non-yielding asset. Okay.

Fear over global trade negotiations and recent softer than expected economic data have weakened the long end of the U.S. treasury curve, which should be a positive for gold prices. Okay. Historically as the long-end of the U.S. treasury curve declines, relative to European and Japanese yields, the dollar moves lower which paves the way for higher gold bullion and silver bar prices. So what?

Continuing from various reports: yields have been under pressure since pushing up to the 2.95% level, following the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates by 25-basis points following their March monetary policy meeting. Investors appear to be unsure of the Fed’s forecast that yields will accelerate higher in 2019 and 2020. A declining 10-year treasury yield is the markets way of telling the Fed that your forecast for growth and inflation are too rosy. I’ve had enough and will stick to Lee Erdahl’s guidance years ago: “Mike, when asked about the price of gold, I say one thing is for certain. It will go up or go down.”

I like to read about those actual gold producing companies and how the life of a miner is going. I also study patterns of the exploration dreamers and how they present their case for eventual production. I do like to read about the political upheavals where armed guards are required for protecting the miners or when a regime decides to take a bigger chunk of production. The writers that really blow my mind (and have for years) are those predicting $5,000 an ounce or more. My greatest curiosities are the gold bulls and bears that baffle and manipulate the direction of spot towards their financial benefit. At times a gold bull wants to bring the price down for acquisition. A gold bear may favor an increase in order to short the commodity. Nothing new here but the game is much more expensive to play than dealing in cotton, corn or even oil.

[Larry Parker]

#6275

http://www.goldenjackass.com/main5.html …Bonds stocks US dollar as unsafe in 2018 (with out silver gold backing MHO). Some reading in Geology/History as follows; 1) Elusive Pocket Gold of Southwest Oregon 2) Detecting for Gold 3) Rocks and Minerals 4)The Forty-Niners 5)The Miners Source is Ebay.com Meanwhile: Get well, get well regulated/makeyourbattlefreedom

[Michael Miller]

#6274

Hello new FORUM writer, parkerlarry. Your entry yesterday is appreciated. Our policy is to retain all entries unless they are grossly offensive. Yours is not at all offensive; however it is a collection of facts or opinions from internet sources and was difficult to read and understand. I’m moving it to Gold Enters Major Bull Market, a topic where Bluejay and others post relevant and personal facts and opinions. What I did this morning, instead of deleting or moving your entry to the Miscellaneous topic, downsized it from 1277 words to 776. Also I edited it to make it readable, unchanging its essence.

I know where you found this information and occasionally scan them. They reflect the current moods of one segment of our mostly ignored interests in gold, gold mining and international economic/currency environment. I’m pleased you have this interest. Much of what is posted on the internet has marginal impact or value in understanding gold mining or the major factors that influence the spot price. There are some interesting observations expressed in your compilation and perhaps others have additional thoughts on these.
For you who is reading this for the first time, instructions suggested: read Edited Version then Original Version or read the original for its content and understanding before reading the shortened edit. This is an unusual and very long entry with some very positive significance.

EDITED VERSION
Spent time 2006 help Jack Martin with gate into deadwood and nosed around in gulches wherein now as a self-taught geologist know they missed a big up there and likely several of them. Meanwhile: Was watching the markets since 5:30 am this morning, Gold coming down from 1345.00 midmorning top at 197 and during the gold 12 noonish run straight down to 1332.X where in the $HUI dropped (index gold stocks) to 192.5. Noted that my investment in silver 3x leveraged was almost unchanged 12.1X $ where as JNUG dropped to Dec 20 lows and then was at 16.33 …it came back. This little 3x leveraged stock was so heavy invested in 2017 that it needed to be reorganized as ceilings had been hit for outright ownership in the stocks it was buying. It preformed opposite of a gold mine returns as a result of this. It’s opposite 3x bear did quite well as a result but dragged the entire mining stock index down as well as criptomania gripping the speculative masses. Red hot traders formerly here.(day low was 15.1X high was 16.80 that sold off fast). All $HUI came back only to 193.X. The indexes were are down fractionally in negative territory.

Further noted Kitco.com 500 ounce US Walking Liberty coins were briefly at 9,900 for uncirculated mixed dates, Canada maple leaves were at 9450 $ and Australian Kagaroos were available in 250 quantity monster boxes only. Now ran across some items of news thought: Silver will never be money Cripto currencies

How would most people connected to the markets in some significant way/401K feel about being paid in silver plus a 10% fee for payment in a coin what Kitco offers via these govt. minted coins above spot price of silver? Sure at some point past couple hundred lbs. NO THANKS. But how about fractional gold 1/10 oz. @ 1500 and oz. cost or 1 oz. gold at 30 dollars an oz. over spot gold? So US mint has sold 500,000,000 silver ounces so far to the investing public. They are coming out with a silver coin) and silver gold ratio is 78 to 1. Looking at original silver gold 20 1$ in silver = 20 $ in gold 178X thru 1932… 20 to 1. How would you feel about payment in silver at 19$?

This spoofing sell came at the end of the month. Actually the gold price hit $1365, Jan 25 envelope for traders closing out monthly books. Gold and silver usually rally thru April and again in June and possibly one more wave up in August July given normal markets. When have we had any kind of normal market situation?

Gold is attempting to hold the $1350 level. The reversal in the GDX on Thursday also came on trading volume eclipsing that of rally days over the past few weeks, which does not bode well for a continuation of this move for the short-term. If you are not fully invested in the sector, I strongly suggest continuing to buy weakness in the best junior gold & silver developer/explorers and sub $1 billion market cap growth-oriented producers. A collection of micro-cap, early-stage explorer “lottery tickets” is also advised if you do not mind a bit more risk. Judging by the cryptocurrency and pot stock moves lately, I believe the mining space is no longer the riskiest sector in the stock market and has instead become the last deep value alternative left in the marketplace, especially when you consider the fact that the mining space has a combined market cap of roughly one half of 1% percent of the stock market.

To put this into historical perspective, at the peak of the last precious metal bull market in 2011, the miners made up 2% of the stock market. By the end of the fabulous gold bull which ran from 1971 to 1980, gold investments as a percentage of Total Global Financial Assets had reached 5.0%. This means gold investment as a percentage of Global Financial Assets were nearly 9 Times greater in 1980 than it is today. In the event gold investments, as a percentage of Global Financial Assets, again rises to 5.0%. It means $5.25 trillion will flood into gold.

Now is the time when funds hold miners down to cover their shorts, while buying all the shares from retails. When they have all the shares they need that’s when rally in miners may start. This week was an exciting week for Gold. One thing for sure happened, that minor train’ definitely left the station. After spending all that time, money, and research making investments, to see them start to preform was satisfying.

ORIGINAL ENTRY

Spent time 2006 help Jack Martin with gate into deadwood and nosed around in gulches wherein now as a self taught geologist know they missed a big up there and likely several of them. Meanwhile:Was watching the markets since 5:30 am this morning, Gold comming down from 1345.00

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html and the Dow up 24X points and other indexes up fractionaly. $HUI was

midmorning top at 197 and during the gold 12 noonish run straight down to 1332.X where in the $HUI dropped (index gold

stocks) to 192.5 noted that my investment in silver 3x leveraged uslv was almost unchanged 12.1X $ where as JNUG dropped to

Dec 20 lows and then was at 16.33 …it came back…this little 3x levereaged stock was so heavy invested (coupla billion

dollars)in/2017 that it needed to be reorganized as ceilings had been hit for outright owner ship in the stocks it was buying

and it preformed opposit of a gold mine returns as a result of this and its opposite 3x bear JDST did quite the well as a

result but dragged the entire mining stock index down as well as criptomania gripping the speculative masses and red hot

traders formerly here.(day low was 15.1X high was 16.80 that sold off fast) while all the $HUI came back only to 193.X and

the indexes were are down fractionally in negative territory.

Further noted Kitco.coms 500 ounce US Walking Liberty coins were briefly at 9,900 for uncirculated mixed dates, Canada

maple leaves were at 9450 $ and Austrailian Kagaroos were available in 250 quantity monster boxes only. Now ran across some

items of news thought: Silver will never be money Cripto curriences will (all still selling off since the big board has

been suddenly down three days in a row/SDS 2X leveraged short on $SPX 500 up to 36.X$ off 34.X low just 1 day before the

start on high volume unchanged that day) are just the latest trend in decentralization…THE NEXT BIG THING?

How would most people connected to the markets in some significant way/401K ect/ feel about being

paid in silver plus say a 10% fee for the payment to be in a coin/what Kitco offers via these govt minted coins above spot

price of silver? Sure at some point past couple hundred lbs NO THANKS. But how about fractional gold 1/10 oz @ 1500 and oz

cost or 1 oz gold at 30 dollars an oz over spot gold? Now we are talking. 50 lbs gold in coin as a max holding? The 1 in 1000

49’ers tipically got away with all they could carry/50 lbs. Thats 12 x 50 x 1377=826,xxx$ So US mint has sold 500,000,000

silver ounces so far to the investing public (1 Billion oz / year world output/Mexico 21% of that annually-They are comming

out with a silver coin)and silver gold ratio is 78 to 1 were as looking at original silver gold 20 1$ in silver = 20 $ in

gold 178X thru 1932… 20 to 1 (actually silver dollar was 77.344 oz silver, rest was copper so 16 to 1 got you an oz of

gold) 20 into 1345 is 67.25$ how would you feel about payment in silver at 19$? Larry

Oh the weekly chart dollar US $USD stockcharts.com is

unalterably set to death cross 50 day down through the 200 day MA and traders are unwilling to even venture an oversold

bounce give: USA bond sell off 10 year 2.77 indexes major selling off after 1.3 years of 1 percent gains by weekly plus. The

spoofing going on in gold silver no gold silver stocks yes during todays down and back 1345$ dip to Kitco market slant’s

‘Fork in gold rally below 1330’ article out for several hours before the sell down in gold/silver never budged. Also note

that conservatives as ourselves are protecting gains of a lifetime in silver coins and bullion ASAP ASAP ASAP. Those in the

know of what is comming given the markets behavior in decade or two and no way out of US liablities…YOU ME Retirees/welfare

staters feed and house and cloth but thats it given our human right s stance.

This spoofing sell of came at the end of the month and

actually the gold price hit on 1365 Jan 25 envelope for traders closing out monthly books. Gold silver usually rally thru

April and again in June and possibly one more wave up in August July given normal markets normal markets normal markets

When have we had-lastly any kind of normal market situation? 1990 s 2003 Irak invasion thru 2007? BUY BUY BY Larry PS

Ronald Regans OMB ‘drain the swamp’ David Stockman has been on alarm for 6 months about getting out and safe with your

gains…so far so good but the Teachings/preachings of Stockman are about to unfold. Explosion dead ahead as $HUI has been

being accumulated in consolidation in 2017 see stockcharts.com $HUI dead flat to down below the 50 day on the weekly until

recently above…Estimate value of criptos is 1/2 trillion hackable worthless trader super foddder.

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-01-26/Gold-Sector-Pops-During-Conference-Week-in-Vancouver.html

gold is attempting to hold the $1350 level. The reversal in the GDX

on Thursday also came on trading volume eclipsing that of rally days over the past few weeks, which does not bode well for a

continuation of this move in the miners for the short-term. If you are not fully invested in the

sector, I strongly suggest continuing to buy weakness in the best junior gold & silver developer/explorers and sub $1 billion

market cap growth-oriented producers. A collection of micro-cap, early-stage explorer “lottery tickets” is also advised if

you do not mind a bit more risk. And judging by the cryptocurrency and pot stock moves lately, I believe the mining space is

no longer the riskiest sector in the stock market and has instead become the last deep value alternative left in the

marketplace, especially when you consider the fact that the mining space has a combined market cap of roughly one half of 1%

percent of the stock market.

To put this into historical perspective, at the peak of the last precious metal miner bull market in 2011, the miners made up

2% of the stock market and by the end of the fabulous gold bull which ran from 1971 to 1980, gold investments as a percentage

of Total Global Financial Assets had reached 5.0%. This means gold investment as a percentage of Global Financial Assets were

nearly 9 Times greater in 1980 than it is today. In the event gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets

again rises to 5.0%, it means $5.25 trillion will flood into gold.

Now is the time when

Funds hold miners down to cover their shorts, while buying all the shares from retails. When they have all the shares they

need that’s when rally in miners may start. This week was an exciting week for Gold. One thing for sure happened, that minor

‘ train’ definitely left the station. After spending all that time, money, and research making investments. To see them start

to preform was satisfying.
You never want to be the proverbial man pictured running behind the train. Running to catch up. Especially that train. Funny

thing this week, there was a man running behind it. Almost ironic. As the man ran faster and faster to catch up to the train.

You could feel the tenison in the air. Then at the last second, a hand extended. Helping the man board!
That grab, that pick, was my favorite. That is where hero’s are born. Thank you Mr. Erfle for the hand. It meant a lot to me.

[Michael Miller]

#6268

The Shot Heard Around the World: Bloomberg reported that Beijing is reviewing the composition of Chinese reserves and considering reducing their allocation to U.S. Treasury securities. China has been diversifying away from Treasuries for years, including increased allocations to gold, direct investments in private equity, hedge funds and high-quality, euro-denominated debt.

The Shot Across the Bow mirrors what is shaping up as a new currency and trade war between the U.S. and China. The U.S. is preparing to slap tariffs and trade sanctions on China, so China is warning Washington that such actions can be met with retaliation.

A top Treasury official signaled confidence in the U.S. government debt market, which at $14.5 trillion is the world’s largest. China holds the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, at $3.1 trillion, and regularly assesses its strategy for investing them.

Yields were already climbing this week amid expectations the improving global economy will boost inflation pressures round the world, just as major central banks scale back their asset purchases.

Today’s spot price for gold: $1,341.70

[SCOOP]

#6220

Global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t, 18% below the exceptional Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Solid inflows into ETFs were nevertheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows, and slower central bank demand also contributed to the year-on-year drop. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t (+9% while demand firmed slightly in both the jewelry and technology sectors.

Not surprisingly, Germany and UK led EFT inflows. USA was a distant third. Much of the investment in gold bars growth came from China, where retail investment was up 30%, breaching 100t for only the fourth time on record.

Indian jewelry demand jumped 16% from last year’s exceptionally low level as market conditions improved after a very tough 2016. Pent-up demand from the closing weeks of 2016 was gradually released as liquidity improved

[Stephen Wilson]

#6194

The gold share sector has turned around along with gold, both turning weekly bullish.
The probabilities of the current strength continuing for an unknown matter of weeks is very good.

It is suspected that when the 50 day moving average line on many gold stock charts, a technical condition known as the “kiss of death” crossed below their 200 day moving average lines many professional traders sold these shares short. Part of the strength in the sector is attributed to these folks buying back these shorted shares at a loss.

Predicting lower gold prices in lieu of the sector’s strength doesn’t appear at the moment to be prudent, along with gold recently turning weekly bullish. Lower gold prices, if they come, will have to wait for another day.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6179

Hi Mike

I am to a large degree a market technician.

The current slide in the gold shares appears to be ending for the short term. In regards to gold, this is a more tricky subject. The respected Martin Armstrong is calling for a lower metal price. This would mean a continuation of the current intermediate down phase, if his opinion pans out.

I continue to see gold in a major bull market with downside possibilities to the 800 area.

I see a shift coming into the gold shares and away from the metal.

The extreme for gold on the upside now is around 3000.

At the moment, I am following Barrick Gold to support my increasing relative strength opinion for the sector.

Disclosure: I do not hold Barrick shares. Most of the families assets are in gold and silver coins and specimens.

[Michael Miller]

#6176

HELLO BLUEJAY

Some savvy financial businessmen I know commented about the posture of the gold market in the near term. All agree that this current fall is an event in the bull market regarding price. What do you see for the current slide?

Comments include: regarding the increase buying power of the US dollar, the reality (or threat) of inflation is ignored; the price manipulators will drive the price down in order to firmly set a low before increasing gold inventor for the future bull increase.

I always fall back on what our great past director, Leland H. Erdahl, recommended as a response when asked about spot pricing. “Mike, rest assured that the following will be the truth. Tell them the price will be higher or lower, it goes up or down and that is about all one should expect.”

With this caveat in mind, how do you see the coming months?

We don’t play the gold market. We are sellers this week because bills must be paid. Oh, well. Next week, I am sure, spot will be higher or lower.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6154

For the week

Gold $1253 off $64.10
Silver $17.34 off $1.87

The round number of 1300 on gold has been breached along with some support at the 1290 level. It looks like the metal is headed to the $1200 level. This is quite possible as the last remaining time in 2016 should be on balance, a bit negative.

When this section was named and started back in January of 2003 it was because a new major bull market in gold had begun, contrary to what you were reading in the papers, hearing on CNBC and on the nightly news. The bull market began exactly on January 23, 2003 when it crossed $352. This bull market remains in force. If for any reason it breaks $700 then, well, this major trend will have changed.

As most folks know, the trading up and down within this bull trend in gold and its related companies can be exciting and at times, scary. The current sell-off in both, overall, could last a matter of unknown weeks ahead. Looking at possible positives, it would be nice if the $1200 level on yellow metal generally held until January of next year when Martin Armstrong once mentioned that a new leg up in gold will begin. He also mentioned sometime back that he sees gold reaching $5,000 in three or four years.

Personally, I don’t want to attempt to pinpoint the bottom coming up because it’s a waste of time playing these games. I would rather concentrate on looking at gold related companies now, knowing they could go lower, and slowly start picking up the ones that have talented proven management with money in the till knowing this current lower move will end, hopefully followed by much higher price going forward.

I follow closely a few excellent gold sniffers up in Canada by the names of David Palmer
and Pierre Lassonde. I continue to hold all my OSTO shares and patiently wait for the next big find which, IMO, is just a matter of time. Thanks Mike for all your time and expertise in keeping the mine a going concern.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6149

Gold $1308 Minus $2.50
Silver $18.67 Up $0.11

Gold has entered a declining phase along with silver. Next support on gold is $1290 followed by $1200. The gold shares have as well been weak.

It appears the precious metals will remain challenged going into the weeks ahead,

[Stephen Wilson]

#6142

Gold $1343.30 UP $9.60

Following the British vote to exit the EU, gold advanced smartly. Since then it has been backing and filling with a lower bias.

Expecting a lower metal price, BREXIT changed everything for the time being. Currently, gold is positive while it remains
above its 1000 day at $1306.06.

There is no question what pushed gold higher and sustained the advancing metal related shares was money exiting western Europe. This trend continues, especially in the U.S. replica watches stock market. Although more funds will eventually head our way, a question remains, is this spurt near to ending

[SCOOP]

#6134

Soros and many big players know it is faster and easier to make an investment paper deflate (go down) than increase in value (go up).
Short selling for manipulators is a money maker.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6133

A follow up on what George Soros was doing marketwise several weeks back:

Today’s comments from Martin Armstrong,

“No professional trader tells people what he will do in advance. Those announcements were made AFTER Soros took a position. I believe they were stories to create his exit. You get people rushing in who think they are joining him when they are being used for the exit.

George Soros is reported by Bloomberg to have been on the wrong side for he was long in the pound before Britain’s vote to leave the European Union on Friday. That means he probably sold the gold positions and used that hype as the exit. He clearly assumed BREXIT would not happen. However, Soros is generally a bear in world stock markets and this is the majority of the crowd. Soros also donated $8 million to Hillary along with the worst of the worst from Wall Street.”

[Stephen Wilson]

#6125

Gold $1215,30 off $4.50
Silver $16.25 off $0.09

Will gold sell off more, contrary to Soros’s positive outlook for it and on Barrick Gold?

The analyst Martin Armstrong and his computer Socrates relating to past bearish
intermediate calls on the metal from above $1,900, appear to think so.

His Friday’s comments are certainly not bullish over the short term for gold:

It might appear that Soros’ bullish stance on gold and possibly Barrick Gold could be premature.

Friday’s comments from Martin Armstrong might indicate a storm ahead for gold:

“The markets are in turmoil. Gold has plunged again trading down trying to flirt with 1206. If we close below 1206 today, then get prepared for a test of 1174 which is the next Monthly Bearish beyond 1240. If we get this signal today, it begins to look like we will break 1000. Failing to exceed last year’s high keeps it on track where we have the potential for the low in 2016. Looks like we will shake the diehards out of the tree.”

This is only for the short term, the long term is a different story. Mr. Armstrong expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce starting when gold finally hits its bottom. The big question is, has gold bottomed already or will it be bottoming lower? It would not surprise me if gold does make a lower low but without new lows in the gold related companies. Only time will tell.

[Hans Kummerow]

#6123

Talking about safe deposit boxes:

After the gold seizure order of 1933 IRS sealed safe deposit boxes nationwide. And of course the owners of the boxes were on record at the banks.

And of course the banks, who were controlling the access to the boxes, were held responsible that no seal was broken – except in the presence of an IRS-Representative.

That is a lesson from history too that is worthy of being remembered.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6122

Hans

Your reference to history seems quite in order. Thank you for your submission.

Yes, when it comes to government being pushed into a financial corner anything is possible. Roosevelt was a coin collector. If history repeats itself it may be OK to hold collection coins more than bars and the bullion coins and the bullion jewelry. Government appears certainly moving in that direction as holding gold in safety deposits boxes is now considered money laundering by them.

Here are some of today’s comments by Martin Armstrong:

When you introduce a collapse in confidence in government, people no longer “feel” secure and they hoard even the based currency. This is why we find so many hoards of debased Roman currency during the chaotic 3rd century.

It is a curious paradox. Right now people are hoarding, as are the banks and corporations. It is hard to hoard paper currency for you will not be able to distinguish between old and new. This means that the hoarding will migrate to tangible assets, shares, gold, silver, and antiquities.

Are folks putting scared money into the gold shares for safety? It would seem so, as the great advance in past months just might indicate a change in thinking. Gold has advanced only 20% from its recent lows while the shares are up many times more versus the metal’s achievement.

The shares are not yet into a major bull market but recent technical bullish preparations appear to be getting it ready to do so. Of course, when this takes place is another question.

[Hans Kummerow]

#6121

If governments become as desperate as Bluejay expects they will, it may be wise to reread Presidential Order 6102 signed by President Roosevelt in 1933.

Read the wording on the Internet and decide afterwords whether you want to own gold bars, gold coins or plain old gold juwelry.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6120

A Growing Case For Gold and Gold Related Companies

Posted May 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Rock Hard Place

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place and is trying to be that little flower that sees the light. It has two choices: (1) deal with the pension crisis at home by raising rates to prevent defaults, or (2) keep rates low to save other governments in emerging markets who continue to borrow and are doomed anyhow. Then there is the question of whether the budget deficit in the USA will explode with rising rates.

The Fed has really lost control of the economy, but the mainstream still needs to figure this out. Our model goes nuts from 2018 into 2020. This is part of the peak in 2015.75. Of course, the general public does not see this yet. They should by next year and then the game will change.
Quiet-into-LightGovernments will not go quietly into the light. They will rage at every possible moment. They are moving toward electronic money since their solution is to force everyone to pay whatever tax they demand. On January 1, 2017, G20 will begin sharing info on everyone. Compliance in business will cost tens of billions of dollars alone. Even companies who do not have foreign clients will have to confirm they do not.

Naturally, governments will act in the most stupid manner for they will not reform. Even if they grab everything, it would not be enough to save them. So be prepared. They will get very punitive. Expect crazy laws to benefit them like constitutional amendments. They will find whatever excuse to confiscate assets; mere suspicion will become proof and it will be your burden to prove innocence.

The old guard is near death. People like John McCain and Barbara Boxer, who was shut down in California, are out the door. We are looking at new people coming to power — the changing of the guard. In this respect, Trump is part of the new and Hillary is the old world of corrupt politics. We are turning the corner. Those in government remain clueless.

What survives is always tangible assets be it land, industry, shares, or something of value like gold, silver, antiques, etc. Whatever currency we use is only a medium of exchange between tangible assets. Currency is not “money,” it never holds its value, and by no means is it a store of wealth. It is just a medium of exchange like a language. So whatever we end up with, which I believe there will be some basket of currencies, will become the new medium of exchange through which everything else if measured.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6119

Reap

In September last year Barrick was below $6, now it’s risen to just under $18 after its recent failure at $20. Now we hear Soros likes gold and especially Barrick? Where were these comments when the stock was below $10? My bet is that Soros has been a seller of the shares for a trade or was acquiring put options to protect his position,

I learned the hard way that agreeing with possible planted media releases here and there is not always a good thing.

Check out the NUGT Index that trades freely as representative of the major golds. It is my opinion that as long as it is below 100 the chances of Soros making money on Barrick over the short term are not appealing.

As long as gold remains under $1320, I sense its last move’s momentum may have come to an end. Things are just not looking good for the precious metals at the moment. These moves go back and forth within major trends, The important aspect of gold’s future is it continues to be in a major bull market going into 13 years now. No matter how scary declines may be, and especially that drop from from $1900, it will always be in the favor of the steadied nerved folks to scale down buying when these movements take place.

[Ron Pacholec]

#6118

Someone is confident in gold’s future:

Billionaire Soros scoops up $264 million stake in world’s largest gold miner

Fund now owns a 1.7% stake in Canada’s Barrick Gold.

[Michael Miller]

#6117

Someone asked me today about the drop in price of gold spot. Pundits say: weaker oil and metal prices put pressure on commodities; concern that US interest rates would be raised; china growth and economy; stronger dollar; violence in Africa; declining interest in stock market. On and on it goes.

Blabber about gold price usually comes from people wishing an increase or people wishing a fall in the price.

What I took from the “big” drop today only means to me that people are manipulating it instead of leaving gold alone. The best person on this web site for understanding or at least familiar with charts and trends is BLUEJAY. Because I am in the gold producing business the spot price interests me; however at the same time it means very little in how I behave. We sell gold when we have it and need dollars. Pretty simple, isn’t it! There were more sellers than buyers to explain yesterday’s decline.

[Michael Miller]

#6082

Nicely stated, Bluejay. If this is the gold bear market, I am very pleased with gold over $1,000 an ounce.

One thing you may know but have not touched is the fact that there are less small gold companies in business than during the last bull market. Supply and demand never leave an economic analysis.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6081

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right in a short period of time ahead, just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they’re still around.

IMO, we are entering an approaching phase transition where a flash crash in the general averages could develop(with much higher all-time highs to follow) along with the gold shares following suit in preparation for their final lows(some have already bottomed) while driving the last remaining sheep over the cliff. This, IMO, will be the long awaited beginning of the next intermediate uptrend within Gold’s Current Long Term Bull Market.

Am I dreaming? “Time and Tide waits for no man.” Our power is dry and the finger is on the trigger.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6080

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they’re still around.

[Michael Miller]

#6077

Gold Investing has many news publications. Some are really good and beneficial. Many are poor and beneficial for different reasons. Most encourage the purchase of gold or stocks. I have been reading them since I entered this industry in 1974. At that time the best information came from South Africa. Once the United States government lifted the price controls and ownership restrictions on gold, the domestic gold advisers and newsletters grew like weeds in the Spring. I continue my interest in gold information. The junior mining market has a very small following. There are fewer survivors left mining and most are without production than years ago. Most are touting how the permit process is favorably moving along. A minority are drilling and touting interesting numbers without any explanation about how it will turn the gold potential in the ground into money let alone profitable money. This is not new. It has existed for forty years. It is also not just in the gold industry.

The following information came across my email today. These are from Presidents and Directors in the junior company class. I’ll summarize for you.

The year is nearly over, and at this point it’s no secret that 2015 hasn’t been great for the gold price. While it nearly breached the $1,300-per-ounce mark in January, by midway through December it was down about 10 percent year-to-date.

:
Despite the current weakness in gold and other metals, I expect gold, and silver in particular, will rebound by mid-year 2016, with investor sentiment following, first into the major producers and trickling down to the juniors. By the end of 2016 I anticipate a much stronger market if for no other reason than there will likely be far fewer junior companies remaining.

2016 looks like it could be another difficult year for the gold market. The main issue continues to be the strength in the US dollar, and any weakness there would certainly be positive for gold. Some encouraging signs do exist as overall demand for metals continues to be healthy and producers have made strides reducing costs. Also, we have seen some of the required mergers and a reduction in the overall number of companies. In general, I see the gold market staying the same for much of the year with some modest recovery from the current level.

The early part of the year should be optimistic as usual, with gold and credible, quality miners (producers) seeing a good lift after tax loss season. The market should continue to improve for miners since so many companies have gone under or delisted, lessening the pool of potential investment choices for investors pulling money out from the overvalued broad markets

Investors need to focus on companies working on appropriate deposits, and investors and analysts need to be aware that “losing it on grade, but making it up on volume” never did and never will work. The ultra-large, high-capex, low-grade deposits and analysts that sold these to the public are as much to blame for the massive losses in the markets and the current investor sentiment.

I think it is very important to stress the cyclical nature of the gold market. Gold and metals prices in general will recover, and what investors need to look for are companies that are positioning themselves to benefit when the recovery starts to happen. It is very difficult to not only survive, but continue to be active under the current conditions.

Gold has always been there, through dynasties and civilizations, and continues to be a constant in our world today. With inflation kept artificially low, along with interest rates, it’s only a matter of time that faith in US dollar dissipates; we are already seeing evidence of that with China becoming a powerhouse in the world.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6047

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Gold: How High is High?
Posted on August 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Gold#20-Hoard

QUESTION:

Mr. Armstrong;

Your timing has been incredible. It is becoming clear that your forecasts are time and price which are separate. You have opened my eyes to a whole new way to observing the world. Do you think gold will still reach $5,000 after 2016?

Thanks so much

RB

ANSWER: Yes, but as I have stated before, $5,000 is the extreme maximum target – not the minimum. I do not see any possibility of $30,000 or some other outrageous forecast. Even reaching $5,000 will not be easy, and we have to be concerned that they could simply declare gold illegal as they did in 1934. Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. Instead, they would are likely to employ the same tactic as used the past – outlawing transactions in gold to avoid taxes, which might even include Bitcoin. That would set the stage for the confiscation of any asset that avoids taxation, a crime they now call money laundering with a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. This is all about them – not you. They will never print their way out for their benefactors would not lend them money under that scenario. Hedge funds demand Draconian measures that a deflationary, as they are doing to Puerto Rico and Argentina. They do not care that society will not function under austerity because they want their profits.

Such schemes against tax avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere. This posture would have the effect of shutting down gold futures, which would really screw the mines for they would be unable to hedge. Not to mention, if gold were illegal, who will buy the gold? So making gold illegal would result in a lot of problems. That does not put it past these people who may be trying some sort of scheme. However, this reflects the problems we face as government acts irrationally while trying to maintain control and power, rather than reform. This is the meltdown phase of governments for they cannot look at the long-term. There is no way out of this mess without a full-blown restructure, but that is a loss of power and they will never willingly do such a thing. They will kick and scream all the way.

Gold should test the $2300 level, which is about the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. That target would appear to be the minimum. That requires, of course, maintaining a free market. We will not have the precise target for a high until we achieve the final low and see the Reversals generated from that low. So anything else is speculation rather than a forecast. We still expect the low to form on the Benchmarks as of now.

Of course, the gold promoters will try to convince people that demand for physical gold will rise and that somehow will save the day. This is more of a sign that the low is not yet in place. What causes the rally from the low is its short-covering, NOT a rise in demand. Likewise, at the top, it is running out of fresh buyers who produce the high. You must exhaust the buyers to create the high and exhaust the shorts to create the low.

I still recommend REAL gold coins – not bullion bars or restrikes. Keep away from rare dates and stay with common grade U.S. $20 gold pieces or $10 and $5. You want coins that can at least be considered a collector’s item. Stay far away from high grade and rare dates. Also, be careful that the premium for newly minted gold coins, as well as silver, will rise as the price declines. This is people trying to make up for losses. Those premiums will decline at the top in prices and widen as prices decline.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6045

Gold $1089.20 OFF $$7.70
Silver $14.73 OFF $ 0.08

Gold’s 5000 day moving average is still ascending and in the vicinity of $800 plus. In my opinion. the metal remains in a bull market. The decline from above $1,900 is no more than an intermediate term scary reaction. As every day goes by, we are nearing the ultimate reaction low of this phase.

Some words from Martin Armstrong:

The Supply Side of Gold
Posted on July 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Gold-Fluctuated

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply” cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government

Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016.

From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.

The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6043

Live Spot Gold
SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 17 hrs. 15 mins.
Jul 24, 2015 00:00 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1083.40/1084.40
Low/High 1076.70 / 1106.50
Change -7.00 -0.64%
30daychg -91.60 -7.80%
1yearchg -210.50 -16.27%

The intermediate down phase continues.

The time and price destination to the final low has not yet been determined by Martin Armstrong.

$1000 gold will break according to him.

In some years following the upcoming bottom gold will reach to the $5000 area.
The bottom is just months away, prepare yourselves.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6042

Gold $1154.50 OFF $15.30
Silver $15.05 OFF $0.70

Aside from all the gold bugs positive comments concerning gold, the metal is still being contained within its bearish intermediate trend. Gold bottoms out when it becomes a dirty word in the press.

[Stephen Wilson]

#6039

Gold $1177.80 OFF $8.40
Silver $15.925 OFF $0.145

Metals Still Pointing Down
Posted on June 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
SVNYNF-M 6-15-2015

The precious metals are still pointing lower into our Benchmark targets. Indeed, the hunt for money by government is becoming so severe we may see the second Benchmark complete the decline rather than the first. So be prepared for that development. The hedge funds are starting to sell again keeping in sync with the charts. Our Energy Models are still negative on the monthly level.

Silver has held the Break-Line Channel for now, but critical support lies at the $12 level. A monthly closing below that will be the final signal that the extreme targets we provided in the the International Precious Metals Report will most likely be seen before this bear market is complete. So nothing has changed to alter those forecasts.

[Author]

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