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- in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3053
Gold $823.40
Silver $15.18
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.24
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.41Gold is taking a little break tonight selling off $8.70 to $823.40.
On the last advancing streak gold went into the general area of $838.00 or abouts. The current weakness is just the start of another buying opportunity.
Jim Sinclair buys gold during reactions each $10 lower and hasn’t been wrong since 2002 when gold bottomed at the $250 area. What does that tell you?
The only timing mistake you can make following the plan is not buying gold on the extreme low of this breathing period of weakness.
Today, I listened to an interview at Agoracom.com with Jean-Francois Tardif of Sprott Management in Toronto. He says that $200 oil is coming and higher later to $300 and $400 are possibilities.
It is, simply, just a matter of increasing demand and shrinking supply. Casey Research has an informative article at kitco.com concerning this matter.
With expected continuing higher prices for energy, it’s just another excuse for gold to continue to advance.
Combining higher oil prices with the simmering pot of toxic OTC derivatives and the case for making gold the currency of choice is well on its way.
It’s just a matter of time before the public figures out how to save their bacon by owning gold. During an anticipated public buying rush expect gold to close its gap between the real adjusted price for inflation, over $2,000, and the current Fed and Treasury suppressed price.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3052Remember what I said previous,
Armand Hammer’s head driller
at Occidental Pet. told Dr.
Hammer: Keep drilling, keep
drilling!! Same holds true at
Origsix!!!in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3051[Please read the below entry before this!!!]
Ah, to be in the crew….
The contract crew wouldn’t still be willing to look unless they knew it could be in there, close by the elusive previous tries.
Hello, out there, investor!
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3049Bluejay, your point is well taken and true, though. It’s just frustrating, yes?
The web-page has endured so much negativity in the last number of years, mostly because the mine hasn’t shied away from putting the truth out there. If I were newly aware of the mine and a new visitor to the web-site, I’d scroll down through many headlines and topics that carry with them a curious question: where’s the positive news?
The frustrating part is that there is so much positive potential, if only resources were found to mine the richest ore-body in the west.
In the mean time, since whatever legal stuff is “pending” out there, the fact remains that the mine has gold inside, and it sure would be sweet to see it in action.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3050Hey, your on-site reporter must respond to the down-in-the-dump tone of recent entries.
More unsolicited people called the mine’s office this week with interest and questions about investment than any time during the past ten years. More phone calls and e-mails arrived at the mine’s office this week from people already familiar with the Sixteen to One than anytime in the past month. More people have indicated they are planning a trip to the mine to talk about the gold future of the Sixteen to One than Scoop can remember.
Facts, truth and honest reports about the on-going performance in gold mining or any other venture cannot be a negative, if they are understood by the reader. There are no hangdog faces in Alleghany. Scoop tries to tell it, as it is, not as anything else.
These present operators at the Sixteen to One mine have been mining gold and paying the bills from selling the gold since 1989. Right through a long and documented bear market and other upheavals underground work continued. There are plenty of assets, just no available cash. There are bills to pay and some must wait; but a miner must receive his paycheck every two weeks to survive. It is hard to have most of the tools a miner needs plus a billion dollars of gold targets mapped out and no money to drill the holes but no one is moping around this little village high up in the Sierra Nevada.
The business media is full of the notion of ill liquidity these days. Well, on a smaller scale with certainly less threatening consequences than the financial mortgage situation, the company has a temporary liquidity problem. It’s happened before and none are happy about it.
However, there is a well-conceived plan to eradicate the problem, a plan that has been in development over several years. Too few people know that an extraordinary risk free opportunity to get into gold and be a player exists in Alleghany, California, as gold continues to wow the market place with its upward strength.
Have you read the last Security and Exchange filing for the Company? It can be found on this web site. The company recorded a $32,000 net profit in the 3rd quartet. Black ink beats red ink any time. Most junior companies struggling to get financed or tout their stock have no revenue at all let alone a profit. Most junior companies only offer an exploration dream to entice eager investors. Most are betting that the Gold Sector will repeat the past when small companies with no production or operation were bought out with an offer from a “major” to develop its prospects. Times have changed!
Well, a crew of these elite miners will be back underground on Monday, working to make their dream of riches a reality. It has happened before, about four times since 1992 where contract miners have succeeded to drill into a rich pocket. It may just happen again very soon.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3048Bluejay, I’ve got to disagree with the part about being unable to draw investors at this point.
If the last perspective on the Forum page has a negative perspective, then they probably turn away. I’m not a billboard for the mine, nor am I a salesman, but Jezz….I’m writing a positive perspective,
“Hey investors, check it out!”And, along the way, don’t get swayed by the negative.
Jeeez.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3046I’m with Bluejay, Jim Sinclair is a must read. If you are interested in purchasing gold or silver coins there are many sites to do so and and Kitco is one. I however, recommend http://www.golddealer.com. Check out the SELL and the BUY BACK offers. Kitco has a $50 difference while golddealer is $15.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3047emf
Congratulations, as Sinclair would say, you are spot on!
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3045Gold $835.40 last
Silver $15.74
Gold/Silver Index 52.87
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.31Well folks, the gold bull market is roaring as I type.
The inflation talk has taken a back seat to more serious troubles, namely Pakistan and the continuing melt down of the very under-reported OTC derivatives market.
As I mentioned this advance has all the earmarks of the advance that took place in 1979.
Silver pushed out of a massive consolidation formation earlier today and is now trading at $15.83. This move is significant and opens the gates to the $20.00 to $24.00 area.
The gold stock Indexes continue to to push higher along with gold. The Gold/XAU Ratio is at about 4.30 and is not overextended. You don’t have to be concerned until the Index starts moving towards the 3 area.
I again stress that you read Jim Sinclair daily. You need to hear what he is saying! The reason for this is that his http://www.jsmineset.com these days, is one of the few real sources of the truth.
Gold is moving in a perpendicular fashing now and is possibly exposed to any kind of a sell off from here on out which should be temporary when it arrives.
Again, beware of the western central bankers with all their possible propaganda that they could at anytime unleash onto the gold market.
If they create a phony sell off be prepared to stand your ground with your longs and get into position, if possble, to buy right into shakeout.
Do what Jim Sinclair does: Buy gold down every $10 on the chart.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3044I did not check the price of gold today and was about to leave the mine office for home. Oh, well, I’ll check to see if it held $800. David keeps a daily record and he entered $822.50. All the participants to this FORUM are probably less surprised than I. Gold’s strength is more than just a currency adjustment. For every transaction (buy/sell price adjustment) someone bets on an increasing price and the other side bets on a decrease. Some paper pushers are caught in a squeeze. Too bad for them and I’ll tell you why later.
Is all this drama taking place on paper or is someone actually buying gold to hold? Are the sellers selling a paper pledge or are they really selling their gold? As a gold producer, the Company is not trading promises on paper. When we sell gold, we take dollars, which we immediately spend. There is an active gold buying market in northern California.
Are all the big forward sales that financed the yet-to-be-mined gold in the ground covered? How are forward sales accounted on a company’s balance sheet? Are they liabilities? Or can a Company write them off as a loss and avoid disclosure? Forward sales just like shorting the market may be influencing this bullion market. How about covering an old forward sale with another at this price? A company could theoretically cover the loss (spread between the old sale and the new sale) and merely move the liability and day of reckoning ahead. If a company (or group of speculators) actually have access to physical gold, it may still hold a catbird position and flood the market with sales. Just how strong is the buying (upside) pressure?
A year ago I posted a thought about the new Dubai gold exchange. Its method of play was unknown; a new face entered the action. I still hold thoughts that gold is the world’s most private and safest storage of wealth. Personally, I’ll stay away from these players but it sure is fun to be involved in the game. Who knows, maybe it really is all about oil.
I recently signed up for a two-week trial for a gold based web site at the suggestion of a shareholder and active gold buyer. I am disappointed in the depth of the participants’ knowledge or behavior. They are still yapping about the things that moved gold and gold stocks twenty plus years ago. Each writer seems to think that the market will react the same today as it did then. It won’t. The fundamentals of mine production are very different as is the technical side of the market. The world’s finances have never been in the current environment.
This is a fun and ultimately very profitable time for Sixteen to One owners. Once I secure working capital, watch or participate and enjoy the ride. My questions are real questions and the answers with any source backup are appreciated. Thank you.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3041Mike, and everyone one else, hasn’t this happened before, and yet the mine survives just like the potential?
Yes. Given the mounting value of gold and the fact that the Original Sixteen to One Mine has gold within, untapped and yet ellusive, the time is ripe for the ideal investors to recognize the potential. How can it be ignored?
Ironic, you bet. Ian’s last 12 month push is not in vain…consider the work done, not the lack of result (I know I’m preaching to the choir) because as I’ve stated before, the larger the pull of the rubber-band, the bigger the snap. Unfortunately the limited resources within the company have tied our hands. Yet this most valuable allure to venture capitalists goes un-noticed for some reason; I predict it won’t be long before operating capital is back in the hands of the extremely experienced crew.
There is a reason there is always a twinkle in Ian’s eyes: the gold is in there, and the longer he and the miners look, the closer they are to finding it. This is just a temporary situation.
The most optimistic of all, Mike, you mustn’t sway from the positive.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3043It’s a sad day for all with gold making 28 year old highs. Unfortunately, we are unable to prove to prospective investors that we “have the goods” and can “deliver.”
Maybe, the day for the mine and our plans will have to wait until gold starts moving considerably faster than the inflation rate.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3042I suggest going to bulletin
board. Mike doesn’t like it
but at least the stock gets
out into a “main stream” type
of circulation. The First
Northern Bank (FNRN:BB) originally the Bank of Dixon,CA is there and it seems to be doing very well for itself.in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3038IRONY: a condition of affairs or events exactly the reverse of what is expected. What’s that old expression, the irony of fate?
Bluejay keeps us informed about how many dollars is takes to buy an ounce of gold. So, as the cost keeps rising, gold producers are feeling their oats. Today gold passes the $800 an ounce price and the company and owner of the richest concentrations of gold mined on record lays off its crew. Irony? Yes, but also a sad twist of fate.
It is not the first time this has happened at the Sixteen to One mine. It is not because of any reason except Mike did not have the money to pay the crew past today. It is not for lack of trying. Everyone knew for over a year that cash flow was serious. All the crew kept going and working to solve the issue. Just reread Scoop to see the disappointment in gold production. Ian and Mike, with the input of others, followed the geologic clues, the electric gold detectors and their intuition and experiences over the past thirty years of mining. They played the hand they were dealt even though everyone knew odds were not the best.
Why were odds not the best and why did they keep mining? The cash flow problem goes way back but that’s another story. The company requiring regular monthly payments plus a payroll every two weeks. Inventories were shrinking. There were few mining targets available because of the need for short-term cash, therefore short-term targets.
A calculated long target was the rehabilitation of the 1000-foot level. The slippery serpentine wall above the level was a troublesome thorn as each foot advanced. The completion date extended until cash flow forced the crew to go find some gold, which they did.
The crew was not completely surprised by the announcement Mike made to them after shift on Tuesday. They knew the cash flow situation and the lack of production; but Mike can usually pull a rabbit out of his hard hat to rescue the moment. Not this time. His efforts to find working capital have not been rewarded, so there is no money to pay the miners, who also have monthly financial needs.
“It isn’t over yet. The miners will be back”, says one.
“We’ve seen the gold come out of this mine. We haven’t gotten a quarter of it yet”, says all.
“It’s just a simple twist of fate” says Jerry Garcia.in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3040The world cash price is available at kitco.com.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3037Gold closed out the week at $806.00.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3036Gold has just surpassed the $800 mark. Last is $803.10.
Don’t be surprised to hear from the western central bankers soon.
Usually whole numbers find it difficult, most of the time, to be passed on their first attempt.
Gold’s ultimate destination appears to be over $1,650 in the months ahead.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3039Where do you get your spot prices? What is the best/easiest/fastest place on the Internet to find the price?
As of 11/2 after close:
I have $807.10 (NY Merc.)
and/or
$808.50 (Gold GC/1 Future Delayed)I agree with your “whole numbers” observation…
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3035Gold’s last sale is $796.30 as we approach $800.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3034Gold $783.30
Silver $14.32
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.70
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.22Gold is down $10 from last night’s high and is unusually weak in Asian markets tonight.
This looks like a slam dunk for the gold bashers on the COMEX in New York tomorrow.
When these episodes appear smart money is buying into weakness. Jim Sinclair buys physical gold every 10 points down during gold selloffs.
Hopefully, we’ll have a quick turnaround after the bashers have their day in the sun.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3033This is interesting. This came out a couple years ago. One can buy bullion through an exchange traded fund (ETF) on the NYSE, and don’t have to take delivery or pay storage fees. The shares supposedly track the price of the metal, more or less, and are backed by actual bars:
http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/us/index.php?noMsg=true
They do have internal management fees, so they will have to liquidate gold from time to time to cover this.
(This item is FYI ONLY. Please know that I am in no way affiliated with these guys, and do not advise or recommend anyone buying this unless they have researched it thoroughly and know what they are getting in to)
The picture of the vault is pretty impressive.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3032Gold $791.70
Silver $14.29
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.33
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.33Gold is strong tonight and it may not all be in the U.S. dollar’s weakness.
On Jim Sinclair’s website at http://www.jsmineset.com he has been saying for a few weeks now that, “This Is It!”
What he’s referring to is a meltdown in OTC derivatives. Everyone needs to bring themselves up to date by reading this site for an unparalleled education of the danger we’re currently exposed to.
It appears that Merrill Lynch could have some very serious continuing exposure to OTC derivative failures. Merrill could be the catalyst that wakes people up!
One only has to recall what the Oracle of Omaha said in the spring of 2003 to understand what has been happening since the sub-prime problems started, “Derivatives are time bombs and financial weapons of mass destruction.”
This push higher on the metal looks a lot like 1979. We could see an extreme push higher on this current move.
The folks that have been selling gold mining shares short during past months on Friday gave away their fears as they knocked down most big gold shares in after hours trading. If these people are that worried we could see one heck of a squeeze on the shares in the period ahead.
In early 1980 gold hit a high of about $875.
I suspect somewhere along in time the western central bankers will have their say with a concerted effort to depress gold with some tough talk about more gold sales.
Good luck everyone.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3031Gold is selling at $788.50, up $5.00 in Sydney and Hong Kong.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3029$783.50 last on gold in NY.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3030No decision is expected regarding the claim for damages filed by CDAA and its law breaking lawyers for ninety days, while the judge reviews the extensive file. The judge may ask for clarification of some of the line items.
Judge Smith conducted an open meeting, encouraging questions and rebuttals. He also asked many questions and said how difficult it is for a new judge to enter a case like this at the end. Most of the audience told Scoop after the two plus hour hearing that they wished they could speak and ask Mr. Knox (defense lawyer) questions. A contingent from Alleghany was present to support the mine. The success or failure of the Sixteen to One affects this small village immensely.
Scoop powered up the old computer, checked the FORUM and was shocked to see Bluejay’s posting on the gold bullion price ($783.50). Some regional gold buyers bought a dore bar on Wednesday at $744.19, a difference of $39.31. That was a nice short-term profit. Wonder how the commodity players are doing with gold? Who is playing the market on the short side today?
Mike just returned from the company’s major high-grade slab buyer. The rising spot prices do not affect the slab price so nothing has changed; however the left over cuttings are increasing in value. No other business likely has more valuable sawdust in its workshop than the Sixteen to One. If you forgot or did not know, SLAB is the name for the sliced quartz and gold ore. It is this rare natural gemstone found in the United States. It appeals to both men and women, rich and poor and can be worn as a casual adornment or to the most formal social functions known to man. None in the room will top someone wearing a well-designed and constructed piece of this fine jewelry.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3025Agnico Eagle Mines will spend over $40 million just on drilling alone this year.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3028When the fabric of attempt gets stretched thin the perseverence of the outcome brings the toast-glass high!
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3027Gold trading at $775.00 in Asian markets.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3026The company that made the big
gas discovery the started them
on the way to being a big co.
was Occidental Petroleum.in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3023Scoop quits evaluating the quartz vein in the headings. See last posting. The indicators for gold are fooling everyone. Each miner who has seen the high-grade concentrate into a nice “pocket” can’t believe the lack of production over the past year.
The underhand decline and sublevel drift produced nary an ounce of gold.
Work towards the Sixteen to One shaft is continuing, one round per day.
The raise between the 800-foot level and 600-footlevel is well underway. Spirits are low in Alleghany, but confidence is high, whatever that means. These miners need to catch a break.
in reply to: Clips from Alleghany #3024As the head driller told the
lease owner years ago when at
approx. 6800 feet at a site in
Lathrop, Calif. “Keep Drilling”
“Keep Drilling”! Well, they
did and hit the second largest strike of natural gas in the
history of exploration in Calif. Source: Armand Hammer’s
Autobiography.in reply to: CDAA Conduct #3022Calif. codes say that a prevailing party in an action is entitled to court costs, etc. On the other hand since we have heard of people going to jail for “Lying” to a court albeit a federal one, all attys. involved in the 16-1 case from the CDAA should be subject to and duly confined for “lying” to a state court and a county grand jury. Moreover those same attys. should be subject to removal from the practice of law.
in reply to: CDAA Conduct #3021Printed in the Mountain Messenger, Downieville, CA on October 18, 2007
Dear Editor,
You played an important role in informing our county residents and your subscribers about the lawlessness of the non-profit CDAA Corporation and its attempt to take over prosecution control of Sierra County. In the process Gale Filter and his anointed shadow, Denise Mejlszenkier, lied to and misled our grand jury, withheld exculpatory evidence and knowingly brought criminal charges against our county’s oldest public corporation and largest non-government employer, its president and mine manager. It was a crippling experience.
People continue to ask about the episode. You and I know that prudence made us stop with the press news. Superior Court Judge Stanley Young cautioned against too much public chatter because the defendants were trying to move the trial from Sierra County. Their motion was denied; in fact they lost every motion in Superior Court to quash the lawsuit. Well, the Sacramento Court of Appeals eventually made a ruling that boggles the mind, has no lawful foundation and helped their friends out of a troubling situation by tossing the case. I would appreciate a future opportunity to educate your readers just how foul smelling judicial practice has become in California but another issue is upon us.
On Thursday October 25 at 9:00 am the Sixteen to One and I will be in Superior Court again. A lot is on the line and, frankly, my confidence in judicial justice is at a low point. I ask our friends and anyone else sympathetic to justice to come and fill the courtroom. Once the Sacramento Court created new law and dismissed our case, it opened the door for a claim by the lawbreaking defendants to make us pay for their court costs. The bad guys lawyer has reached beyond the statutes and seeks over $250,000. It would be humorous if it were not so serious.
A new judge will be making the decision. I still believe that American law is not totally corrupt and the good guys will step forward to preserve its ethical foundation; but my spirit has been considerably dampened. The CDAA and its crowd of supporters pulled a fast one that is far more serious than the one Prosecutor Nyfong pulled in North Carolina on the Duke students. Nyfong was disbarred and now his victims are suing for damages. Where has California gone wrong?
Oh, Mr. Editor, please don’t bring up that tilting windmill Quixote line. Most people know the lawyer jokes but few people really get into the struggles of the law. Even fewer people ever get indicted by a grand jury or face serious murder charges for a tragic accident. Because we now face an over powering threat to our very existence to pay for the defense of these lawbreaking, unethical and unscrupulous carpetbaggers, we could sure use some local support on October 25 at 9am in the Downieville courtroom.
Sincerely,
Michael Miller,
President Original Sixteen to One Minein reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3020Gold $768.00
Silver $13.78
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.73
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.32There’s a great self explanatory picture tonight at jsmineset.com’s website of what is in store for the gold shorts.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3019Answer to Greenhorn’s Question – (see the question below)
Performa Statement: ORIGINAL SIXTEEN TO ONE MINE, INC.
Factual production:
Historical production from Plumbago veins is four (4) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production from Sixteen to One veins is eleven (11) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production (Recent) from Sixteen to One mine between 1992 and 1997:
Total production is 32,924 ounces of gold, which average 5,487 ounces per year.Assumptions:
Spot price of bullion gold: $650.00 per ounce.
Footage mined: Four hundred (400) feet per month.
Development mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Production mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Ounces of gold from development are zero (0).
Ounces of gold from production are eleven (11) per foot.Conclusions:
Production and revenue based on actual mining between 1992 and 1997:
Annual production: 5,487 @ $650 per ounce = $3,566,550.00
Production and revenue based on actual early historic figures:
Total production: 26,400@ $650 per ounce= $17,160,000Performa statement for Special target #1
Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is eighteen (18) weeks long or thirty-five percent (35%) of a year.
Total production: 1,920 @ $650 per ounce = $1,248,000Performa statement for Special target #2
Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is twenty (20) weeks long or thirty-eight percent (38%) of a year.
Total production: 2,085 @ $650 per ounce = $1,355,250Total first year production and revenue for Special Targets:
Recent Assumptions:
Total Production 9,492 @ $650 per ounce = $6,169,800
Historical and Actual recent Assumptions:
Total production 30,405 @ $650 per ounce – $19,763,250Notes: The company sells gemstone quartz/gold that exceeds the spot price.
The use of proceeds includes a long term mining plan without projections of gold production and is classified as “development”; however a study of the history of the Sixteen to One suggests that it is highly unlikely to develop the vein to the extent planned without encountering an ore shoot.in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3018Here’s a question. If you look backwards at what the last $5 million in effort bought in terms of gold production, what do you see? Obviously this has to be approximate, etc., but might give some idea of what $5 million more could deliver.
Just a thought.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3017I rarely jump into the gold price discussion. Peter Degraaf’s views on the fundamentals are those that I and some of the people I associate with have known for years. Fundamentals do count. A technical analysis is also a method of determining an investment. Maybe the appreciation for open discussion will be the straw that breaks the doubt of people with a desire to get into gold and have access to money to look into our operation and plans for growth.. Please don’t remind me of Brea X as if we somehow fit into that category.
The Sixteen owns outright its mines. It is a gold producer. Its working capital needs are modest ($5 million). It has the mining expertise. It has a proven product that sells for a price that greatly exceeds the spot bullion price. It has large holdings with identifiable past production and large virgin ground. It is in a secure country. It has a history of perseverance and wisdom to exist for 100 years.
So, where are the men to step to the plate? Many more pieces of evidence are out there to support an investment in gold. If anyone knows one as good as ours, please write me. It is a risk/rewards evaluation. Also what is the upside potential verses the downside risk. Work out that equation as you search for the best gold play. I did.
in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3015The following article complete with charts can be viewed at http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/oct112007.html
By Peter Degraaf
It will never cease to amaze me how many people who call themselves ‘gold bugs’, still don’t believe that the current gold move is for real. They worry about the central bankers, the plunge protection team, the COT’s and goodness knows who else.It’s time to step away from the ‘daily noise’ and look at the fundamentals, and then see if the ‘technicals’ line up alongside, to provide confirmation.
The fundamentals are incredibly bullish!
The money supply worldwide is increasing about seven times faster than the supply of newly mined gold.
Much of the gold listed as inventory by central banks, has been leased out, yet still shows up as physical gold.
The gold at Fort Knox has not been audited since 1953!
New gold discoveries are few and far between.
Every gold mine is a ‘depleting asset’. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.
Due to rising energy prices, the cost of exploring and mining is making some projects uneconomic, even at 740.00/oz. In addition a lot of mining equipment is on ‘back order’ – tires, trucks etc.
There is a shortage of qualified mining experts. The good ones are all employed, and due to the fact that the industry went through a bear market from 1981 – 2001, not enough people graduated with mining degrees, to replace those who are now retiring.
Even if a new supply of gold were found tomorrow, it would take many years, dozens of permits, and possible court challenges from ‘tree huggers’ before this new supply could come to market.
There are several billion more potential buyers (think jewelry), on the planet who were not part of the consuming public in 1980, when gold rose to 850.00
Two of the fastest growing economies are China and India. It just happens that both of these groups of people have a love for gold. The middle class in both of these countries is growing by leaps and bounds.
Adjusted for inflation, today’s gold price of 740.00 compares to just over 300.00 in 1980 dollars. GOLD IS CHEAP!
Now for some exciting charts:Featured is the GDX, gold ETF. The green arrow points to an upside breakout, from a pennant formation (blue lines). Very bullish! The RSI is rising again after having eliminated some excess bullishness (blue arrow). The MACD is preparing to turn up again (black arrow). The 50DMA has just completed a ‘golden crossover’ with the 200DMA (blue and red lines). Both moving averages are rising (green oval).
Featured is the HUI index of unhedged gold and silver mining stocks. The green arrow points to an upside breakout from a flag formation. This is usually a very reliable bullish signal, and sets up a target at 490! (That’s 490!)
The blue arrow points to the RSI turning back up in support of the move. The black arrow points to the MACD which is about to turn positive again. The 50DMA and 200DMA (red and blue lines in the middle of the chart), are in positive alignment and both are rising. IT DOES NOT GET MUCH BETTER!
Featured is the XAU mining stock index for those of you who prefer this index instead of the HUI. The picture is just as bullish as for the HUI. An upside breakout from a bullish flag (green arrow), the RSI and MACD rising in support (blue and black arrows), and the 50DMA and 200DMA (green oval), in positive alignment and rising. The target here is 215!
Featured is the chart that compares the XAU mining index to the gold price. When this chart pattern is rising, it indicates that gold and the gold shares are in ‘rising mode’. We are looking here at another bullish pattern called: “Cup with handle”. The blue arrow points to the handle. We can see it not only in the index itself, but also in the supporting indicators, RSI and MACD. This is very unusual, and the upside breakout pointed to by the green arrow, is a very bullish signal.
This last chart compares HUI gold stocks to XOI oil stocks. The trend from March till July favored oil stocks. Then in July, the trend turned in favor of gold stocks again. This trend is now well established, having moved back above the 200DMA (solid red line). The two supporting indicators are positive (blue dashed lines). This tells us that, while oil is rising, pulling oil stocks up along with it, gold stocks can be expected to rise even faster.
Summary: The signs are pointing to much higher gold and silver prices, this is most likely the start of our annual “Christmas rally”. Now, if gold should drop five or ten dollars, caused by an attempt on the part of traders who are short, (to force the market down so they can cover their short positions), don’t send me your Emails, telling me I was wrong, instead get in there and buy! Don’t miss this train!
Trust the fundamentals, and trust the technical analysis that backs it up.
in reply to: Miscellaneous #3014I was recently told by a clamper that the reason the
chinese remains were exhumed
and sent back to china was that
their bodies were considered by
them and others to be owned
by the emperor in china (but
their spirits stayed?)in reply to: Gold Enters Major Bull Market #3016They did announce a new strike
in Australia a week or so ago - AuthorPosts
